CROP REPORT- 2005 CALIFORNIA PROCESSING TOMATOES

FYI: Here is some information for your forward business planning with respect to the upcoming 2005 California tomato crop…

Carryover from 2004 Crop:

The March 1, 2005 report by the California Tomato Growers Association indicates that the March 1 inventory is up 11% from March 1, 2004 and movement (“Disappearance”) is up 12% from the previous year.  However, what it doesn’t show is that all processors have seen their movement in March and April increase substantially.  (Two processors I spoke with said they had the highest shipping months in March and April they have ever had in the history of their companies.)  This may be due to buyers buying ahead of expected price increases or maybe due to a stronger economy.  Regardless, I suspect carryover on July 1, 2005 will be very manageable.

2005 Crop News:

Acreage reduction---

As of January 14, 2005 , California ’s tomato processors indicated they intend to contract 10.3 million tons, approximately 9 percent less processing tomatoes than the final 2004 harvested contracted production.   Processors estimate the contracted product for 2005 will come from 265,000 acres producing an average of 38.87 tons per acre.  The contracted acreage forecast is 28,000 acres less than was planted under contract in 2004. 

Yield loss due to weather (wettest winter in years):

The January 14 th forecast yield for 2005 would be the second highest on record.  HOWEVER, THIS YIELD IS UNREALISTIC (IT IS 4 TONS PER ACRE HIGHER THAN CALIFORNIA ’S 10 YEAR AVERAGE)

SUMMARY-HERE IS WITH WHAT WE NOW KNOW OF THE WEATHER RELATED PROBLEMS. 

• [WET PLANTING CONDITIONS OF THIS SPRING WILL CERTAINLY REDUCE THE YIELD PER ACRE .]
• About 50-70% of the tomatoes are grown in greenhouses to be transplanted when risk of frost damage is lower. Yet, the first three weeks of the processing season rely on direct seeded fields.
• During a two week window in early February, growers planted before being delayed by rains again.
• Growers need dry fields for planting so the heavy equipment doesn’t pack down the wet soil making it difficult for the roots to spread out.
• Yields could also drop if the weather prevented growers from performing optimal bed preparation during the fall.

RECOMMENDATION: EARLY CONTRACTING FOR PROCESSED TOMATOES FROM CALIFORNIA WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE IN THE BUYER’S FAVOR.