California’s wholesale tomato industry is seeing a striking shift in 2025: though acreage for processing tomatoes has been scaled back, yields per acre are soaring. In fact, contracted acreage is down roughly 10%, yet forecast yields are a record-breaking 55.0 tons per acre. For those buying bulk tomatoes, this tug-of-war between acreage decline and yield growth is worth understanding.
Why Acreage Has Declined — Even As Demand Remains
Processing Contracts Slashed to Rebalance Supply
- California’s tomato processors have contracted production from only about 200,000 acres — a 10% drop in acreage compared to 2024.
- This reduction reflects a broader strategy to rebalance swollen inventories built up over recent years.
- Previously, booming demand drove high contracted acreage and record output — but with processing tomato consumption flattening, reducing acreage helps avoid oversupply and price pressure.
Changing Market Dynamics and Inventory Pressures
- After large harvests in 2023–2024, inventories of processed tomato products increased.
- With demand normalizing, buyers and processors are cautious about ordering more tonnage.
- For growers and producers of bulk tomatoes, this translates to fewer contracted acres.
How Yields Are Still Hitting Record Highs
Ideal Weather and Water Conditions Boost Productivity
- The 2025 season benefited from mild spring temperatures and adequate water supply.
- Cooler-than-normal summer weather reduced plant stress, resulting in more abundant fruit.
Record-Breaking Yields Per Acre of Wholesale Tomato
- Average yields of 55.0 tons per acre set a new record, surpassing the previous high from 2018.
- Some growers even report yields as high as 75 to 80 tons per acre in exceptionally favorable fields.
Strong Yields Help Offset Smaller Acreage — But Only Partially
- Despite acreage reduction, total production is still forecast near 11 million short tons.
- For buyers of bulk tomatoes, supply remains strong, though surplus margins are tighter.
What This Means for Buyers and Bulk Tomato Supply
- Stable supply despite acreage cuts: high yields help ensure wholesale tomato availability.
- Possible tighter margins for extras: fewer acres mean limited surplus beyond contracts.
- Quality likely to remain high: favorable growing conditions typically produce consistent fruit.
- Pricing may stay firm: reduced acreage helps prevent oversupply, stabilizing prices.
Why Growers Are Watching This Shift Closely
- Acreage reduction reflects strategic adjustments, not industry decline.
- Advances in farming and favorable climate conditions support strong yield potential.
- Understanding this balance is key for all supply chain players.
What to Watch — and What It Means for You
- Monitor processor decisions — some tomatoes may go unpicked if canneries don’t accept extras.
- Track wholesale tomato and bulk tomato pricing through the season.
- Secure supply contracts early due to reduced acreage.
Ready to Secure Reliable Tomato Supply?
The shifts in California’s tomato production underscore the importance of partnering with suppliers who understand the market. If you’re sourcing wholesale tomato or bulk tomatoes, now is an ideal time to lock in dependable, high-quality supply.